About the game and its sources
This game is inspired by the book Utopia for Realists. Here you find how the game works and where each number comes from.
The book
Utopia for Realists is a book by the Dutch historian Rutger Bregman. It says that life is much better than most people think. It also says that big ideas of the past, like the end of slavery, looked impossible before they won.
This game takes that first idea and tests it with numbers. Rutger Bregman did not make this game.
How the score works
- For each question, the page checks if your guess was worse or better than the real number.
- The error is a share of the slider range. A bad guess is a positive error.
- Your pessimism gap is the average error of all questions, in percent.
- A guess within 10% of the range counts as close.
The facts and their sources
- What share of all people live in extreme poverty today?Real number: 9.95% (2025). Before: 43.4% (1990).Source: Our World in Data, Poverty (World Bank PIP, $3 a day line)
- What share of one-year-old children get the three-dose DTP vaccine?Real number: 85% (2025). Before: 20% (1980).Source: Our World in Data, Vaccination coverage (WHO and UNICEF)
- What share of adults in the world can read and write?Real number: 87.74% (2024). Before: 12.05% (1820).Source: Our World in Data, Literate and illiterate world population
- What share of children die before their fifth birthday?Real number: 3.63% (2023). Before: 22.72% (1950).Source: Our World in Data, Child mortality (UN World Population Prospects 2024)
- How long does a newborn baby live on average in the world today?Real number: 73.17 years (2023). Before: 32 years (1900).Source: Our World in Data, Life expectancy (UN World Population Prospects)
- How many times richer is the average person today than in 1820?Real number: 14.8x (2022). Before: 1x (1820).Source: Our World in Data, GDP per capita (Maddison Project Database 2023)
- How many people per 100,000 die in wars each year?Real number: 1.9 deaths per 100,000 (2024). Before: 22.15 deaths per 100,000 (1950).Source: Our World in Data, Death rate in state-based conflicts (UCDP)
- How many mothers die per 100,000 live births in the world?Real number: 212 deaths per 100,000 (2020). Before: 370 deaths per 100,000 (1990).Source: Our World in Data, Maternal mortality ratio (UN MMEIG)
- What share of all people do not get enough food to eat?Real number: 8.2% (2024). Before: 12.7% (2000).Source: Our World in Data, Prevalence of undernourishment (FAO)
- What share of all people have electricity at home?Real number: 91.93% (2024). Before: 78.22% (2000).Source: Our World in Data, Access to electricity (World Bank)
Questions
What is this game?
It is a short quiz about the world. You guess a number with a slider. Then you see the real number. The game shows how far your guess was from the facts.
What is the pessimism gap?
It is the average distance between your guesses and the facts, on the side of bad news. A positive gap means you guessed worse than the facts. A gap near zero means you see the world clearly.
What is Utopia for Realists?
It is a book by the Dutch historian Rutger Bregman. It first came out in 2014. It says that life is much better than most people think, and that big ideas can make it better still. This game is inspired by the book. The author did not make it.
Where do the numbers come from?
Each number comes from a public source, for example the World Bank, the United Nations or Our World in Data. The list on this page names the source of every fact, with a link.
Does the game save my guesses?
No. Your guesses stay in your browser. They go in a link only when you choose Copy challenge link. A browser never sends the part of a link after the # sign to a server. Read more about privacy.